Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.
